Research
I specialize in analyzing monetary and fiscal policy through quantitative modeling, counterfactual analysis, numerical methods, and time series econometrics. My work focuses on understanding the implications of policy changes, identifying and analyzing debt shocks, leveraging high-frequency data for empirical analysis, and modeling using heterogeneous agents.
Taming Volatility: Evaluating NGDP Targeting (in review at JME)
Abstract: I embed a nominal GDP level target in a Taylor-type rule and compare the volatilities of output, inflation, and the nominal rate to a standard, inflation- targeting Taylor rule. I demonstrate analytically that the source of the shock matters for relative variances. NGDP level targeting delivers more stable output and more volatile inflation under productivity shocks, but it generates more stable output and inflation under supply and demand shocks. These results are generally confirmed in an estimated quantitative model. Last, I impose a zero lower bound (ZLB) and simulate the model under both targets. NGDP level targeting hits the ZLB less often than inflation targeting at the cost of longer sessions at the ZLB. Switching to an NGDP level target while at the ZLB leads to quicker economic recovery through the Fed’s use of forward guidance.