Research
I specialize in analyzing monetary and fiscal policy through quantitative modeling, counterfactual analysis, numerical methods, and time series econometrics. My work focuses on understanding the implications of policy changes, identifying and analyzing debt shocks, leveraging high-frequency data for empirical analysis, and modeling using heterogeneous agents.
Government Debt: Cost-Push Shocks and Fiscal Theories (in progress)
I examine the impact of US government debt financing shocks on United State business cycles. I first identify financing shocks empirically using Treasury auction data. Resulting VAR impulse responses strongly resemble a cost-push shock, with the exception of falling federal funds rates. I then replicate the VAR responses in a state-of-the-art heterogeneous agent model. An increase in government financing costs tightens the ability of firms to borrow, lowering output and increasing inflation. Permissive monetary policy prevents explosive debt dynamics at the cost of higher inflation.
Taming Volatility: Evaluating NGDP Targeting (preparing for submission)
Abstract: I embed a nominal GDP level target inside a Taylor-type rule and compare the volatilities of output, inflation, and the nominal rate to a standard, inflation targeting Taylor rule. I demonstrate analytically that the source of the shock matters for relative variances. NGDP level targeting delivers more stable output and more volatile inflation under productivity shocks, but more stable output and inflation under supply and demand shocks. These results are generally confirmed in an estimated quantitative model. Lastly, I impose a zero lower bound (ZLB) and simulate the model under both targets. NGDP level targeting hits the ZLB more often than inflation targeting. Switching to an NGDP level target while at the ZLB leads to quicker economic recovery.