Research
I specialize in analyzing monetary and fiscal policy through quantitative modeling, counterfactual analysis, numerical methods, and time series econometrics. My work focuses on understanding the implications of policy changes, identifying and analyzing debt shocks, leveraging high-frequency data for empirical analysis, and modeling using heterogeneous agents.
Taming Volatility: Evaluating NGDP Targeting (in review at JEDC)
Abstract: I embed a nominal GDP level target in a Taylor-type rule and compare the volatilities of output, inflation, and the nominal rate to a standard, inflation-target Taylor rule. I demonstrate analytically that the source of the shock matters for relative variances. With an NGDP level target, a productivity shock results in more stable output but more volatile inflation. Cost push shocks and demand shocks result in more stable output and inflation. These results are, with small caveats, confirmed in an estimated quantitative model. Last, I impose a zero lower bound (ZLB) and simulate the model under both targets. An NGDP level target hits the ZLB less often than an inflation target at the cost of longer sessions at the ZLB. Switching to an NGDP level target while at the ZLB leads to quicker economic recovery through the Fed's use of forward guidance.