2024 Presidential Forecast
I worked with Jacob Hukill (Notre Dame) to construct a hierarchical Bayesian model to forecast the 2024 presidential election. The model is a descendent of the model available on G. Elliot Morris's Github page. We make our own adjustments, modeling decisions, and data choices. This page displays the summary results of the model, run the night of November 4, 2024.
State | Harris Win % | Trump Win % | State | Harris Win % | Trump Win % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AK | 13.383333 | 86.616667 | MT | 1.116667 | 98.883333 | |
AL | 0.000000 | 100.000000 | NC | 44.433333 | 55.566667 | |
AR | 0.008333 | 99.991667 | ND | 0.000000 | 100.000000 | |
AZ | 41.866667 | 58.133333 | NE | 0.408333 | 99.591667 | |
CA | 99.958333 | 0.041667 | NE-1 | 9.366667 | 90.633333 | |
CO | 97.075000 | 2.925000 | NE-2 | 85.266667 | 14.733333 | |
CT | 99.375000 | 0.625000 | NE-3 | 0.000000 | 100.000000 | |
DC | 100.000000 | 0.000000 | NH | 87.466667 | 12.533333 | |
DE | 99.508333 | 0.491667 | NJ | 93.091667 | 6.908333 | |
FL | 17.116667 | 82.883333 | NM | 92.750000 | 7.250000 | |
GA | 39.441667 | 60.558333 | NV | 50.116667 | 49.883333 | |
HI | 99.966667 | 0.033333 | NY | 99.216667 | 0.783333 | |
IA | 23.691667 | 76.308333 | OH | 12.475000 | 87.525000 | |
ID | 0.000000 | 100.000000 | OK | 0.000000 | 100.000000 | |
IL | 98.575000 | 1.425000 | OR | 99.266667 | 0.733333 | |
IN | 2.300000 | 97.700000 | PA | 48.833333 | 51.166667 | |
KS | 4.400000 | 95.600000 | RI | 99.766667 | 0.233333 | |
KY | 0.008333 | 99.991667 | SC | 3.691667 | 96.308333 | |
LA | 0.350000 | 99.650000 | SD | 0.033333 | 99.966667 | |
MA | 100.000000 | 0.000000 | TN | 0.041667 | 99.958333 | |
MD | 100.000000 | 0.000000 | TX | 13.733333 | 86.266667 | |
ME | 93.858333 | 6.141667 | UT | 0.100000 | 99.900000 | |
ME-1 | 99.941667 | 0.058333 | VA | 88.366667 | 11.633333 | |
ME-2 | 17.908333 | 82.091667 | VT | 100.000000 | 0.000000 | |
MI | 60.191667 | 39.808333 | WA | 99.758333 | 0.241667 | |
MN | 85.658333 | 14.341667 | WI | 57.891667 | 42.108333 | |
MO | 2.116667 | 97.883333 | WV | 0.000000 | 100.000000 | |
MS | 0.633333 | 99.366667 | WY | 0.000000 | 100.000000 |