2024 Presidential Forecast

I worked with Jacob Hukill (Notre Dame) to construct a hierarchical Bayesian model to forecast the 2024 presidential election. The model is a descendent of the model available on G. Elliot Morris's Github page. We make our own adjustments, modeling decisions, and data choices. This page displays the summary results of the model, run the night of November 4, 2024.

EV Results

Swing States

Map

State Harris Win % Trump Win % State Harris Win % Trump Win %
AK 13.383333 86.616667 MT 1.116667 98.883333
AL 0.000000 100.000000 NC 44.433333 55.566667
AR 0.008333 99.991667 ND 0.000000 100.000000
AZ 41.866667 58.133333 NE 0.408333 99.591667
CA 99.958333 0.041667 NE-1 9.366667 90.633333
CO 97.075000 2.925000 NE-2 85.266667 14.733333
CT 99.375000 0.625000 NE-3 0.000000 100.000000
DC 100.000000 0.000000 NH 87.466667 12.533333
DE 99.508333 0.491667 NJ 93.091667 6.908333
FL 17.116667 82.883333 NM 92.750000 7.250000
GA 39.441667 60.558333 NV 50.116667 49.883333
HI 99.966667 0.033333 NY 99.216667 0.783333
IA 23.691667 76.308333 OH 12.475000 87.525000
ID 0.000000 100.000000 OK 0.000000 100.000000
IL 98.575000 1.425000 OR 99.266667 0.733333
IN 2.300000 97.700000 PA 48.833333 51.166667
KS 4.400000 95.600000 RI 99.766667 0.233333
KY 0.008333 99.991667 SC 3.691667 96.308333
LA 0.350000 99.650000 SD 0.033333 99.966667
MA 100.000000 0.000000 TN 0.041667 99.958333
MD 100.000000 0.000000 TX 13.733333 86.266667
ME 93.858333 6.141667 UT 0.100000 99.900000
ME-1 99.941667 0.058333 VA 88.366667 11.633333
ME-2 17.908333 82.091667 VT 100.000000 0.000000
MI 60.191667 39.808333 WA 99.758333 0.241667
MN 85.658333 14.341667 WI 57.891667 42.108333
MO 2.116667 97.883333 WV 0.000000 100.000000
MS 0.633333 99.366667 WY 0.000000 100.000000